Government Criticizes WHO's COVID-19 Death Estimates

New Delhi: The Indian government has raised concerns over the World Health Organization's (WHO) mathematical modeling approach used to estimate COVID-19 deaths, highlighting several inconsistencies and erroneous assumptions. Minister of State for Health Anupriya Patel informed the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday that the mortality figures reported by states and Union territories do not correlate with the estimates provided by the WHO or international medical journals.

Inconsistencies in WHO's Approach

Patel explained that the WHO's estimates, based on a mathematical modeling exercise, covered deaths due to all causes between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2021, including those due to COVID-19. However, she pointed out that this approach suffers from multiple inconsistencies and erroneous assumptions. Similar projections published in international medical journals have also faced criticism for their limited representation and generalization of variables.

Government's Response

The Central Council of Health and Family Welfare, comprising health ministers from all states and Union territories, unanimously passed a resolution against the WHO's approach. The Union health minister has been authorized to convey their collective disappointment to the global health body. India has strongly objected to the WHO's methodology, emphasizing that it overlooks the country's robust Civil Registration System (CRS). The CRS recorded a significant increase in death registrations in 2020, which cannot be solely attributed to the pandemic.

Patel further noted that the coronavirus is still circulating, and COVID-19 related deaths continue to be reported. Detailed guidelines for reporting COVID-19 deaths have been issued by the Union health ministry to all states and Union territories. Additionally, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has provided guidelines for accurately recording COVID-19 related deaths in line with the globally accepted International Classification of Diseases-10 (ICD-10) classification.

Continued Vigilance

As the pandemic persists, the Indian government remains vigilant in monitoring and reporting COVID-19 deaths. By addressing the limitations of international modeling approaches and reinforcing the reliability of the CRS, the government aims to ensure accurate and transparent reporting of mortality figures. This ongoing effort highlights the importance of robust data systems and the need for international bodies to consider local contexts and systems when making global estimates.